I have always had an affinity for Lou Gehrig. He was the epitome of health, fitness and dedication to his sport before he was tragically struck down with the terrible disease that now bears his name.
Today, for the first time, I imagined what his tremendous career stats would be like if he hadn’t acquired the fatal illness
It’s pretty clear to this writer that he was on his way to 700+ home runs.
He had 464 homers by age 34 after the 1937 season. That was the last season before his decline. Up to that point, he had averaged 40 home runs a year in each year of the 1930s. His less than stellar performance on the field in 1938, in retrospect, was clearly brought on by the progressive disease.
In a fantasy world, where Gehrig remained healthy, it is fair to assume that given his work ethos, he would have continued to average 40 home runs a season for at least 5 more years from 1938 - 1942. That would have put Gehrig at 704 homers by age 39.
These projections are reasonable when you consider that Ruth hit 41 homers at age 37 and 34 at age 38. And Ruth was notoriously fat, and ate a dreadful diet, whereas Gehrig kept himself in impeccable shape before Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis ravaged his body.
Now let’s take it a little further.
At age 40 in 1943, let’s assume that instead of enlisting, as a young Joe DiMaggio and Ted Williams did, Gehrig remained in baseball during the war years of 1943, 1944, and 1945, in which most active ballplayers from 1942, under age 40, were now serving.
The case could be made that Gehrig would have been better serving the war effort by remaining on the ball field to help morale at home and raise money, much in the way that golfer Byron Nelson did when he was deemed ineligible for the war by the draft board.
Now let’s say in those war years, against vastly diminished pitching, Gehrig managed 30 home runs a year.
That would put Gehrig at 794.
Then possibly, he would then have stuck around for one more year in 1946 to hit number 800.
It is very likely that had Lou Gehrig not been struck down by disease, he would today be the all-time home run leader.
And that would have made a lot of people put Gehrig in the #1 slot ahead of Ruth and Mays as the all-time greatest baseball player.
At a minimum, it would have put Lou Gehrig in the conversation for greatest ever. And that’s a conversation Gehrig sadly isn’t in right now. What stimulated me to wonder about Gehrig today was an article I saw in which Gehrig didn’t even make the list of the top 10 all-time players.
Below, Gehrig is pictured in a July 6, 1934 newspaper, a day after hitting 2 homers and driving in 7 runs as the Yankees beat the Senators 8 - 3.
DEDICATION
I’d like to dedicate this article to the memory of my father-in-law, Anthony Boni, who also succumbed to ALS. “Tony” was a big sports fan and an avid reader of The Sports Time Traveler.
POSTSCRIPT
In writing the above article, I do not wish to slight Hank Aaron, one of my favorite all-time baseball players, who I think IS the RIGHTFUL ALL-TIME HOME RUN LEADER.
If you’re wondering what I’m talking about, then read my article from last year about my discovery of how Aaron’s 8 home runs in the Negro Leagues should put him 1 ahead of Barry Bonds. This article will be behind my subscription paywall soon.
There's a New All-Time HR King - And His Name is Henry Aaron
I was living a normal life with my family when, at 52, I began experiencing muscle stiffness and twitching. After seeing a neurologist, I was diagnosed with ALS. It was a tough reality, and as the disease progressed, I eventually lost the ability to walk and relied on a wheelchair. A friend recommended Uine Health Centre (www. uinehealthcentre .net), where I began their ALS/MND protocol. After about three months, I noticed significant improvements, less stiffness, fewer symptoms, and I was able to walk distances again.